UPDATE - WEATHER WATCH: Hurricane Cristobal Disrupts Cruise Ship Schedules to Bermuda

SINT MAARTEN - Cristobal is now a Hurricane, the third one for the season.  The system was located over 500 miles from the island of Bermuda, and is forecast to pass northwest of the territory as a category one hurricane.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Bad weather has already disrupted cruise ship schedules and the Department of Marine and Ports has suspended the St. George's ferry service until further notice.  Cruise ships Norwegian Dawn and Explorer of the Seas left Bermuda ports early Tuesday morning to avoid the hurricane.  The Norwegian Breakaway cruise vessel has cancelled her trip to Bermuda for this week

The Bermuda Weather Service has classified the system as a potential threat to the island.

Maximum sustained winds according to the National Hurricane Center is 75 miles per hour at 11.00am on Tuesday morning.  The hurricane is moving toward the north at 12 miles per hour.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

ARCHIVE: Monday, August 25, 2014: TS Cristobal is nearing hurricane status with windspeeds at Monday lunchtime 60 miles per hour with higher gust.  The TS could become a hurricane on Wednesday, August 27. Heavy rainfall continues on the Turks & Caicos Islands as the storm slowly moves at two miles per hour towards the north-northeast.

The island of Bermuda has been advised by the National Hurricane Center to monitor the progress of this system.  TS Cristobal is forecasted to move away from the Bahamas through Tuesday, August 26 and past west of Bermuda on Wednesday. 

ARCHIVE: August 24, 2014: The third Tropical Storm (TS) of the season formed namely Cristobal and was near the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday at 11.00AM.  Heavy rainfall is likely for portions of the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for certain parts of the Bahamas.

The center of the TS will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas through Monday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 miles per hour with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

TS Cristobal is still forecast to become a hurricane and this could occur on Wednesday, August 27.  The storm is forecast to remain out at see and does not pose a threat to Florida or the Carolinas at this point in time.

ARCHIVE: August 23, 2014: The fourth Tropical Depression (TD#4) of the Atlantic hurricane season formed North of Haiti on Saturday, August 23.  This same weather system passed Sint Maarten as a Low Pressure system on Thursday.

TD#4 is forecast to develop into a Tropical Storm on Sunday, August 24 over The Bahamas, and a Hurricane on Tuesday, August 26 when its east of the Bahamas.  TD#4 will be named Cristobal once it reaches tropical storm status and tracks through the islands of the Bahamas.

When it reaches hurricane status, Cristobal should be east of the Bahamas islands continuing to track northward off the coast of Florida towards North Carolina.

Brian McNoldy, senior researcher reports the following on Saturday, August 23:

“The disturbance we've been watching struggle across the Atlantic for the past 13 days is now north of Haiti... and has just been upgraded to Tropical Depression 4.  Aircraft reconnaissance missions have been carried out frequently, but up until now, it has either been lacking enough centralized thunderstorm activity or a closed circulation that extends all the way to the surface.  Both are requirements for a tropical cyclone (that generic term includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes). 

“Because it has remained so poorly organized, models have had a hard time with it.  Stronger cyclones are steered by different layers of the atmosphere than weaker cyclones, so if a model is too bullish on the intensity in the analysis or forecast, it will likely get the track wrong.  For the past several days, this track forecast has revolved around whether or not a weakness in the subtropical ridge is strong enough to allow the disturbance to slide northward into it, or if it will not "feel" that weakness and continue a west-northwest heading.

“The difference between those scenarios is rather big: it either hits south Florida or recurves over the Bahamas and stays well away from the US... with some 'wiggle room' in between.  I would still estimate a 10-15% chance of the south Florida option happening, which is noteworthy because it would only be 3 days away and the Bahamas are infamous for producing rapid intensifiers.  The wind shear is low, the SST is very warm, the only obvious obstacle now is its proximity to Hispaniola.

“The eastern Bahamas are now under a tropical storm warning, and the official NHC (Editor: National Hurricane Center) forecast (withcone of uncertainty) is shown below.  Their forecast brings it up to tropical storm intensity tonight, and then hurricane intensity on Tuesday... right in the middle of the pack.  If you're in south Florida, this should not be ignored.  There is a slight possibility that soon-to-be Cristobal could make landfall there as a minimal hurricane in just three days.  If you're in coastal SC (South Carolina) or NC (North Carolina), you should also be paying very close attention to this in the coming days.”  Brian McNoldy, is a senior research associate at University of Miami’s Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.