Below Average Hurricane Season Expected. 11 Storms. Five of those Hurricanes and Two Major Systems

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – Crown Weather said on Friday, May 1^st, 2026 that it is not expecting any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf for at least the next couple of weeks, but we are now starting to get into that time of year where you start looking at the tropics and the chances for tropical development.

Crown Weather: “I still think that we are looking at a below average hurricane season in terms of the number of storms. We now have El Nino that is now developing over the Pacific and these El Nino conditions will strengthen during the hurricane season.

“This will lead to the atmospheric state to be unfavorable for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes across the deep tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean. It also means that any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form will probably do so north of 20 North Latitude in the Atlantic and the Gulf.

“All-in-all, I still think that we are looking at a season that features 11 Named Storms, five (5) of those storms becoming Hurricanes and two (2) of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes.”

Areas Of Concern This Season 

Crown Weather: “I do think that the Caribbean and the deep tropical Atlantic below 20 North Latitude will be very quiet in terms of tropical development. The overall environment looks to be quite unfavorable due to the strengthening El Nino conditions.

“In addition, the entire Caribbean looks to be much drier than average in terms of rainfall throughout this summer into the early fall months. It’s possible that rainfall may trend towards above average by October and November, especially across the northern Caribbean.

Storms/Hurricanes may Curve Towards The Bahamas, U.S. East Coast/Canada

“Further north, I think that any tropical storms or hurricanes that form this season will curve towards the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada or be directed north and northeastward near Bermuda and then out into the open Atlantic.

“As for the US Gulf Coast – the area that I have some concerns with in terms of possible impacts from any tropical storms or hurricanes might be towards the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The reason I think this is because I could see a scenario where any westward tropical disturbances moving through the Caribbean will wait to develop until they reach the southern or central Gulf.

“That being said, unfortunately, it looks as if the overall rainfall may end up being below average to possibly well below average across the Bahamas, Florida and much of the southern and southeastern United States throughout this summer into the early fall months.

“As we get into October and especially November, rainfall totals may trend towards above average across much of the southern and southeastern United States and the Bahamas.

“This will lead to the possibility of a very stormy winter of 2026-27 with above average rainfall and severe weather across the Bahamas, Florida and the southern and southeastern United States due to the El Nino conditions.”

What May & June Might Look Like 

Crown Weather: “Right now, there are no signs that suggest tropical development will occur across the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf over the next couple of weeks or so. The Eastern Pacific may actually spit out a tropical system by mid-May as conditions may become favorable there in about a couple of weeks from now.

“As we get into late May and especially June, it’s possible that we could see an increase in the chances for tropical development on the Atlantic side of the tropics. The weather pattern as we get into late May and the first half of June may become favorable for tropical development from the southwestern North Atlantic westward into the Gulf.

“These potentially favorable conditions may include an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation which may push into the Atlantic around then. It may also include a weather pattern that consists of an upper level high pressure system that builds over the northeastern United States during the last half of May leading to lowering barometric pressures just off of the southeastern coast of the United States as well as over the Gulf (especially the central and eastern Gulf).

“This all might lead to an increased chance for tropical development just offshore of the US Southeast coast and across the central and eastern Gulf during the period between May 20 and June 10.

“Right now, none of the very long range forecast guidance shows any signals towards increased tropical development. That being said, the CFS weekly model guidance is hinting at increased rainfall totals in the area from the northwestern Caribbean north and northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas to near the southeast US coast between May 20 and June 5. These increased rainfall totals could be a signal from this model that says there may be an increased chance for tropical development in this area during this time frame.

“As for the very long range European ensemble sub-seasonal tropical cyclone forecast, right now, it shows pretty quiet conditions across the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 weeks. Beyond this, it does show a very low chance (5-10 percent) for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean and just offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States during the last week of this month. We’ll have to see if these chances start increasing going forward for late this month and during the first half of June.

“I still think that the months of June and July may be busier than active in terms of tropical development. I also think that the peak months of August and September could be nearly dead in terms of tropical development, especially in the deep tropics and the Caribbean.”