Crown Weather says early June could see First Named Tropical Weather System

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - It appears that the first week of June or so may be our first opportunity for tropical development on the Atlantic side of the tropics, Crown Weather reported on Friday, May 8, 2026. And the first name on the list is Alberto.

Crown Weather: “The area that I think that may need to be watched for tropical development is across the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and near the US Southeast coast from about Florida to the North Carolina coast.

“The overall weather pattern that could set up this possible development will include an upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation that looks to cross into the Atlantic by the first week of June. Usually when this occurs you will see an increase in moisture, storminess and tropical development chances.

“Given the signals in the data, I think that we will definitely need to watch the eastern Pacific first for tropical development during the second half of this month. I then think that the tropical development chances will increase over the western half of the Atlantic & especially in the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic as we move into the first part of June.

“Taking a look at the very long-range model guidance reveals that some of them are hinting at the possibility of tropical development by the first week of June.

“More specifically, the European EPS ensemble model’s sub-seasonal forecast is showing a 10 to 20 percent chance for tropical development during the first week of June in the area from the eastern Gulf to the southwestern North Atlantic.

“While the CFS model doesn’t outright show tropical development right now, it does show a swath of above average rainfall to occur during the first week of June across the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic. So, even if tropical development does not occur, there is the potential for quite a wet period of time during the first week of June across the western Caribbean and the southeastern US, including all of Florida.

“One other thing that I wanted to mention is that the very long-range guidance does hint that the wind shear values may be favorable for tropical development during this time period across much of the Gulf, the southwestern North Atlantic and the western Caribbean. This means that if we do see tropical mischief try to occur during the first week of June, the environmental conditions could be favorable for development and strengthening.

“It goes without saying that the possibility of tropical development across the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and the southwestern North Atlantic is something that I’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few weeks. Because of this, I’ll certainly be keeping you updated on the latest. For now though, this is something to just keep an eye on, just in case, and is nothing to be worried or concerned about.”