Tropical Disturbance Slowly Organizing

CARIBBEAN/UPDATE - McNoldy, Senior Researcher on Thursday says the Low Pressure (LP) system has gotten slightly better organized, and tracking models have also shifted the system a little further to the north.

McNoldy: As far as the latest model forecasts go, a storm entering the Gulf of Mexico now looks like for a long-shot, whereas yesterday (Ed. Wednesday, August 20) it looked relatively likely.   

ARCHIVE: August 20, 2014 - Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science says the current low pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles could become the third Tropical Storm (TS) of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and it could track into the Gulf of Mexico.

McNoldy says: Weather models are in good agreement that Tropical Storm Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOH-bahl) will form from this disturbance and track through the northern Caribbean as a weak and disorganized storm.  Beyond that, there might not even be a storm left. But it’s also possible that we’ll be looking at a strengthening storm entering the Gulf of Mexico in a week.  Either scenario is possible, so for now, we have the luxury of time to wait and watch.

According to the senior researcher, using the National Hurricane Center’s climatology of seasonal storm counts, the third tropical storm normally forms by August 13th, and the third hurricane forms by September 9th.  If Cristobal forms and becomes a hurricane, it will fit nicely into an “average” season.

“Historically, systems that pass through the central Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm during August have a wide range of outcomes, both in terms of track and intensity.  Tracks span from Mexico to New England, and intensities span from tropical depression to Category 4 hurricane, so there’s no clear climatological guide.

“In the four to six day range, if the disturbance tracks over Hispaniola and Cuba, its chances of becoming a significant storm would be diminished.  But if it stays over water instead, it would almost certainly be a stronger storm since the sea surface temperature in the Caribbean is very warm, and the wind shear, which is detrimental to hurricanes, is expected to be low to moderate.  The GFS model has been consistently bringing this system into the Gulf next week, and this morning’s run continues that trend. Many other models agree, though they differ in the amount of time spent over the islands of the Greater Antilles,” McNoldy said in his Wednesday, August 20th report.