SINT MAARTEN – The Tropical Wave (TW) located 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continue to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms according to the National Hurricane Center.  Environmental conditions are expected to become more favourable for development at the end of the week (Friday) or weekend which places TW near or over the Leeward Islands/Virgin Islands at that time.  Global models forecast this system developing into a storm and interests in the Bahamas and U.S. Eastern seaboard should pay attention.

The TW continues on a westward to west-northwestward track at about 15 miles per hour.   

ARCHIVE: Monday, August 25: The Low Pressure (LP) system in the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to become a Tropical Depression over the upcoming weekend of August 30/31 and should also be in the vicinity of the Northern Leeward Islands/Virgin Islands around that time as well.  

Environmental conditions could become favourable for development allowing the system to develop into the depression after Thursday, August 28.  Some weather models do not forecast any development at all.  If it does not develop, the system could still bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the weekend. At 8.00am on Monday, August 25 the LP was located approximately 1100 miles to the west south-west of the Cape Verde Islands. 

ARCHIVE: Sunday, August 24: A new Tropical Wave (TW) system in the central Atlantic Ocean has its sights on the Leeward Islands based on a projected forecast track by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The TW is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Conditions do not appear to be favourable for development during the next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the week.    

At 8.00pm on Sunday, August 24 the TW was located 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The wave is moving westward to west-north westward at about 15 miles per hour.  

SINT MAARTEN – Sint Maarteners planning to travel to Europe in the coming days or weeks via the United States could experience possible disruptions due to a possible volcanic eruption in Iceland.  Iceland has already instituted a no-fly zone around Bardarbunga volcano as a precautionary measure because it cannot rule out an eruption.

Iceland authorities are of the opinion that a large eruption could disrupt air traffic in northern Europe and the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Iceland Meteorological Services have already detected a small eruption.  Bardarbunga volcano is the country’s largest volcano and second highest peak.

Four years ago, April 2010, air travel to Europe and to North America was disrupted for almost a week after a volcanic eruption that created a huge ash cloud across Europe.

Earlier in the week of August 18 Iceland Civil Defence evacuated tourists and hikers from the mountain area.   

SINT MAARTEN - Cristobal is now a Hurricane, the third one for the season.  The system was located over 500 miles from the island of Bermuda, and is forecast to pass northwest of the territory as a category one hurricane.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Bad weather has already disrupted cruise ship schedules and the Department of Marine and Ports has suspended the St. George's ferry service until further notice.  Cruise ships Norwegian Dawn and Explorer of the Seas left Bermuda ports early Tuesday morning to avoid the hurricane.  The Norwegian Breakaway cruise vessel has cancelled her trip to Bermuda for this week

The Bermuda Weather Service has classified the system as a potential threat to the island.

Maximum sustained winds according to the National Hurricane Center is 75 miles per hour at 11.00am on Tuesday morning.  The hurricane is moving toward the north at 12 miles per hour.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

ARCHIVE: Monday, August 25, 2014: TS Cristobal is nearing hurricane status with windspeeds at Monday lunchtime 60 miles per hour with higher gust.  The TS could become a hurricane on Wednesday, August 27. Heavy rainfall continues on the Turks & Caicos Islands as the storm slowly moves at two miles per hour towards the north-northeast.

The island of Bermuda has been advised by the National Hurricane Center to monitor the progress of this system.  TS Cristobal is forecasted to move away from the Bahamas through Tuesday, August 26 and past west of Bermuda on Wednesday. 

ARCHIVE: August 24, 2014: The third Tropical Storm (TS) of the season formed namely Cristobal and was near the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday at 11.00AM.  Heavy rainfall is likely for portions of the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for certain parts of the Bahamas.

The center of the TS will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas through Monday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 miles per hour with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

TS Cristobal is still forecast to become a hurricane and this could occur on Wednesday, August 27.  The storm is forecast to remain out at see and does not pose a threat to Florida or the Carolinas at this point in time.

ARCHIVE: August 23, 2014: The fourth Tropical Depression (TD#4) of the Atlantic hurricane season formed North of Haiti on Saturday, August 23.  This same weather system passed Sint Maarten as a Low Pressure system on Thursday.

TD#4 is forecast to develop into a Tropical Storm on Sunday, August 24 over The Bahamas, and a Hurricane on Tuesday, August 26 when its east of the Bahamas.  TD#4 will be named Cristobal once it reaches tropical storm status and tracks through the islands of the Bahamas.

When it reaches hurricane status, Cristobal should be east of the Bahamas islands continuing to track northward off the coast of Florida towards North Carolina.

Brian McNoldy, senior researcher reports the following on Saturday, August 23:

“The disturbance we've been watching struggle across the Atlantic for the past 13 days is now north of Haiti... and has just been upgraded to Tropical Depression 4.  Aircraft reconnaissance missions have been carried out frequently, but up until now, it has either been lacking enough centralized thunderstorm activity or a closed circulation that extends all the way to the surface.  Both are requirements for a tropical cyclone (that generic term includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes). 

“Because it has remained so poorly organized, models have had a hard time with it.  Stronger cyclones are steered by different layers of the atmosphere than weaker cyclones, so if a model is too bullish on the intensity in the analysis or forecast, it will likely get the track wrong.  For the past several days, this track forecast has revolved around whether or not a weakness in the subtropical ridge is strong enough to allow the disturbance to slide northward into it, or if it will not "feel" that weakness and continue a west-northwest heading.

“The difference between those scenarios is rather big: it either hits south Florida or recurves over the Bahamas and stays well away from the US... with some 'wiggle room' in between.  I would still estimate a 10-15% chance of the south Florida option happening, which is noteworthy because it would only be 3 days away and the Bahamas are infamous for producing rapid intensifiers.  The wind shear is low, the SST is very warm, the only obvious obstacle now is its proximity to Hispaniola.

“The eastern Bahamas are now under a tropical storm warning, and the official NHC (Editor: National Hurricane Center) forecast (withcone of uncertainty) is shown below.  Their forecast brings it up to tropical storm intensity tonight, and then hurricane intensity on Tuesday... right in the middle of the pack.  If you're in south Florida, this should not be ignored.  There is a slight possibility that soon-to-be Cristobal could make landfall there as a minimal hurricane in just three days.  If you're in coastal SC (South Carolina) or NC (North Carolina), you should also be paying very close attention to this in the coming days.”  Brian McNoldy, is a senior research associate at University of Miami’s Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

WEST AFRICA - Dr. David Nabarro, Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Ebola who was appointed by the Secretary-General to establish how best the UN can support affected communities, was wrapping up the first leg of a visit to all Ebola-effected countries in West Africa.

In the Liberian capital, Monrovia, this afternoon (Friday, August 22), he told reporters at the end of his two-day visit that more health workers will be brought to the country to deal with the outbreak, saying “The United Nations is looking at ways to radically scale up support to fight Ebola.”

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, UN World Health Organization (WHO) Assistant Director-General for Health Security, who is travelling with Dr. Nabarro, said at the press conference: “This is not a hopeless situation.”

Also at the same press conference, Karin Landgren, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Coordinator of UN Operations in Liberia, said that UN peacekeepers were not involved in quarantining people due to Ebola.

Meanwhile, the Geneva-based WHO said in its latest update that the magnitude of the Ebola outbreak, especially in Liberia and Sierra Leone, has been underestimated for a number of reasons.

In parts of Liberia, WHO said, a phenomenon is occurring that has never before been seen in an Ebola outbreak. As soon as a new treatment facility is opened, it is immediately filled with patients, many of whom were not previously identified.

For example in Monrovia, it said, an Ebola treatment centre with 20 beds, which opened last week, was immediately overwhelmed with more than 70 patients.

“This phenomenon strongly suggests the existence of an invisible caseload of patients who are not being detected by the surveillance system,” the UN health agency said.

WHO said: “Many families hide infected loved ones in their homes. As Ebola has no cure, some believe infected loved ones will be more comfortable dying at home. Others deny that a patient has Ebola and believe that care in an isolation ward – viewed as an incubator of the disease – will lead to infection and certain death.”

The health agency went on to say that in rural villages, corpses are buried without notifying health officials and with no investigation of the cause of death. In some areas, most notably Monrovia, virtually all health services have shut down.

Meanwhile, WHO reiterated that it does not recommend any ban on international travel or trade. It stresses that closing borders doesn’t work and is detrimental, as affected countries will be pushed towards a humanitarian crisis and the international community’s ability to fight and reverse the Ebola outbreak will be hampered.

WHO and the rest of the UN system also continue to highlight that the virus is not airborne and that becoming infected requires direct physical contact with body fluids of people who have been infected or died from Ebola.